What’s at stake for Ontario’s major parties in this snap election | CBC

Can the PCs flip more NDP seats?

So, now that we’ve gone over what each party wants tonight, let’s get into a big storyline to watch tonight: whether the PCs can further bite into the NDP’s conventional voter base.

When Ford was first elected premier in 2018, his government very publicly went to war with organized labour. But in advance of the 2022 election, his PC party made a deliberate choice to change tack.

Using its “plan to build” as a backdrop, the PCs targeted working-class voters and especially private labour unions. The course correction fit well with Ford’s relentless rhetorical focus on the economy and jobs. Soon the PCs started to make noticeable inroads in traditional NDP strongholds.

Those gains showed up in the 2022 election results. The PCs flipped NDP ridings like Windsor–Tecumseh (think: auto manufacturing) and Thunder Bay–Atikokan and Timmins (think: forestry and mining). Those wins were key to securing an even-bigger majority than his first.

Now, Ford wants to expand his seat count again and that requires taking more ridings from the New Democrats. It’s clear from Ford’s campaign stops that the PCs have ridings like Windsor West, London North Centre and Thunder Bay–Superior North in their crosshairs.

Ford has also racked up trades union endorsements (though his relationships with many public sector unions remain … rocky, shall we say). And all but one of his seven stops on the last day of campaigning were with tradespeople or trade unions, several of them in NDP-held ridings.

If the New Democrats want to remain the Official Opposition they will need to hold onto many of the seats they already held, and there’s no doubt they’ve fought hard to stave off PC encroachment. But it’s possible the threat of U.S. tariffs, and Ford’s positioning as the only choice to fight them, could put more traditionally NDP seats in jeopardy.